Trump temporarily enlarges the beef import quota by 300,000 metric tons after the U.S. herd fell to a 75-year low

DENVER — President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on August 26, 2026 that temporarily enlarges the United States beef tariff-rate quota by 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings, so that volume can enter at the low in-quota duty rate instead of the 26.4 percent out-of-quota rate through November 30. The proclamation, titled “Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer,” opens the first of three monthly tranches on September 1, and it arrives after the U.S. cattle herd fell to 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, its smallest January 1 inventory in 75 years.

The action applies to lean beef trimmings alone, the wholesale input that processors blend with higher-fat domestic beef to make ground beef, and it lands on a Colorado industry that has been shedding feedlot cattle much faster than the country as a whole. On the August 28 broadcast of The Kim Monson Show, Allen Thomas, an author, speaker and writer at the show, argued that a temporary federal action cannot fix a supply problem that runs on the multi-year cattle cycle. “This 300,000 metric tons is a very temporary thing, but what it signals is a lack of trust in the free market,” Thomas said.

Colorado’s cattle on feed fell 15 percent in a year while the national decline was 3 percent

Colorado held 2.55 million head of all cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, even with a year earlier, according to the cattle report that USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released January 30, 2026, whose state tables place Colorado 10th in the country. Its feedlot inventory went the other way, falling to 920,000 head from 1,080,000, a decline of 15 percent, while the national count of cattle on feed slipped 3 percent to 13.8 million. The state still ranks fifth in the country for cattle on feed, and that inventory contracted more than four times faster than the nation’s in a year when its total cattle inventory held flat and its cow herd grew 2 percent.

Two Colorado beef plants also went through labor stoppages this year, JBS in Greeley and Cargill in Fort Morgan. The Colorado Department of Agriculture describes the cattle industry as the largest agricultural sector in the state.

Three tranches of 100,000 metric tons open first come, first served under the Uruguay Round Agreements Act

Under a tariff-rate quota, a set quantity of a product enters at a low in-quota duty and everything above that quantity pays the higher out-of-quota rate, which for beef is 26.4 percent. The proclamation raises the aggregate in-quota amount for calendar year 2026 by 300,000 metric tons, and the annex carrying that change into the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States marks every duty-rate column “No change.” The tonnage is confined to lean beef trimmings under four HTSUS statistical reporting numbers, 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091 and 0202.30.5097. Trump acted under section 404 of the Uruguay Round Agreements Act, 19 U.S.C. 3601, which lets a president temporarily increase an in-quota quantity after determining that supply will be inadequate to meet domestic demand at reasonable prices.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection will administer the volume first come, first served in three 30-day tranches of 100,000 metric tons each: September 1 through September 30, October 1 through October 30, and October 31 until the quantity fills or November 30, whichever comes first. All 300,000 metric tons are allocated to the residual “other countries or areas” category. Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay and the United Kingdom each hold a country-specific quota and sit outside the action, as do free-trade partners Canada and Mexico. Neither the proclamation nor the White House fact sheet identifies which countries are expected to fill the additional volume.

The proclamation builds on Proclamation 11010 of February 6, 2026, which added 80,000 metric tons of in-quota lean beef trimmings for Argentina, and it expressly leaves that earlier action in place. On price, it directs the secretary of agriculture and the U.S. trade representative to monitor whether the new imports are selling 25 percent below the market price for lean beef trimmings and to notify the President immediately if they are not, so he can decide whether to end what remains of the increase. The White House fact sheet issued the same day says the action “encourages beef to be sold at a 25% discount from the going import price,” and it projects the tonnage will raise beef supply by roughly 10 percent over current projections.

The 300,000 metric tons is a ceiling on how much may enter at the in-quota rate over 90 days. How much of it represents beef that would not have come anyway is a separate question, and an analysis of the August 21 announcement from Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture notes that importers were already paying the full 26.4 percent on beef trim, which it says indicates the tariff was not restrictive for many importers, while adding that this does not mean the tariff had no effect on import volumes. Purdue put the illustrative effect on average retail ground beef prices at well below 1 percent.

USDA’s Economic Research Service projected an 86 million head inventory as the lowest since 1951

NASS counted 86,155,300 head of all cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, down 0.4 percent from a year earlier. The January report gives the inventory figure without a historical comparison. USDA’s Economic Research Service made that comparison in March 2025, writing that a total inventory of 86 million head “would be the lowest cattle inventory since 1951.” The proclamation makes the same finding, stating that the herd “has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years.”

NASS’s midyear count found 94.2 million head of cattle and calves on July 1, 2026, slightly above the 94.0 million a year earlier, though beef cows were down 1 percent and the calf crop down 2 percent, and the proclamation says Agriculture Department data suggests the herd began early stages of growth in July 2026 while it continues to face drought and wildfire conditions. ERS has now recorded seven consecutive years of contraction in the 12th year of a cattle cycle that the agency puts at about 10 years and a range of 8 to 12, and it forecasts beef output to fall about 4 percent from 2025 levels.

Several documented pressures sit behind that number. ERS says dry conditions can diminish pasture and reduce harvested feed supplies, and as of the August 25, 2026 map, the U.S. Drought Monitor had 78.9 percent of Colorado in severe drought or worse against 31.6 percent of the contiguous United States. Restrictions on live cattle imports across the southern border, imposed in May 2025 because of the New World screwworm, remain in force; USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service reopened the Douglas, Arizona port to Mexican cattle on August 24, 2026 as the first step of a phased reopening it says it may pause. Cattle biology also sets the pace of any recovery, since a heifer must reach breeding age, carry a calf, and raise that calf to market weight before a rancher’s decision to rebuild adds any beef to the supply.

Ground beef averaged $6.885 a pound in July 2026, the most recent month published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up 10.1 percent from $6.254 in July 2025.

Colorado Livestock Association and Colorado Cattlemen’s Association asked Trump to reconsider the plan

The Colorado Livestock Association and the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association came out against the move in a joint statement responding to the announcement the President made on August 21, five days before he signed the proclamation. “The President and his administration have consistently espoused their desire to promote growth in the United States cattle herd; with cattle numbers at a 75-year low, this announcement is likely to have the opposite effect,” the two groups said. They added that both “support a free market environment and recognize the need for a robust import and export market,” and that Colorado producers need stability and clarity as they begin making livestock marketing decisions. The statement asked Trump to reconsider the plan, to “engage directly with cattle producers before advancing policies that could further disrupt livestock markets,” and to exercise greater caution in promoting policies that move livestock markets immediately.

Colin Woodall, chief executive officer of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, also criticized the plan when it was announced, in a statement carried by High Plains Journal. “Cattle farmers and ranchers are responding to strong market signals and historically high demand, and we are already working to rebuild after years of ongoing drought, high input costs and other challenges that have reduced U.S. cattle numbers,” Woodall said. “Today’s announcement and other market interventions throw cold water on the prospect of herd expansion and sacrifices long-term stability for short term messaging.”

Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of R-CALF USA, answered the proclamation by calling on Congress to restore mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef. “Without mandatory country-of-origin labeling, lower-priced foreign beef can enter the U.S. market and compete directly with American beef without being clearly distinguished from it at retail,” Bullard said in a statement issued August 27. “This denies American ranchers the opportunity to capture the value consumers may place on U.S.-produced beef while forcing them to compete with increased volumes of lower-priced foreign beef.”

Allen Thomas told The Kim Monson Show that ranchers need confidence in a return before they rebuild a herd

Thomas framed the question on the air as one about incentives rather than about a single quarter’s grocery bill, since the money a rancher puts into a bigger herd comes back over years. “So if we want these ranchers to increase the cattle herd, the domestic herd in our country, well, we have to instill enough confidence in them that their investment is going to be worth it,” he said. He asked whether conservatives would have let the same action pass under the radar had a Democrat done it, and warned that reaching for Washington when prices climb concedes an argument conservatives usually make against progressives. “I worry that we as conservatives are handing the premise over to the progressives to use in the future by saying we don’t actually trust the free market,” Thomas said. “We need Washington to step in.”

Cain, founder of Task Force Freedom Northern Colorado, was in studio and put it more bluntly. “I love my president,” he said. “But I think it’s 100% government overreach.”