[00:05] Announcer: It's the Kim Monson Show, analyzing the most important stories.
[00:10] Kim Monson: An early childhood taxing district?
[00:14] Announcer: The latest in politics and world affairs.
[00:16] Kim Monson: I don't think that we should be passing legislation that is so complicated that people kind of throw up their hands and say, oh, I can't understand it.
[00:23] Announcer: Today's current opinions and ideas.
[00:25] Kim Monson: It is not fair that just because you're a big business that you get a break on this and the little guy doesn't.
[00:31] Announcer: Is it freedom or is it force?
[00:33] Announcer: Let's have a conversation.
[00:41] Kim Monson: Be sure and check out our website, Kim Monson, that's M-O-N-S-O-N.com.
[00:46] Kim Monson: All kinds of great information there.
[00:48] Kim Monson: And be sure and sign up for our weekly email newsletter.
[00:51] Kim Monson: You can do that at the website as well.
[00:54] Kim Monson: Podcast recaps of all the shows are there.
[00:56] Kim Monson: And go over to Facebook and like us as well.
[00:58] Kim Monson: There's a lot of good posts that we make there as well.
[01:06] Producer Steve: You bait me every Friday with this one.
[01:10] Producer Steve: You just want me to say something, I don't know, make me the Eeyore to your Winnie the Pooh, I guess.
[01:18] Kim Monson: So it's a big week that we're coming into in the Christian faith.
[01:25] Kim Monson: We start with Palm Sunday this Sunday, and it's going to be so weird not to be in church, Steve.
[01:31] Kim Monson: We're doing virtual worship right now, and, you know, I had taken it for granted to be able to go and worship at my church with my fellow Christians, and it's going to be really weird this year.
[01:44] Producer Steve: Yeah, it's been, what, three weeks already since my church put out a forecast about what was coming down the road.
[01:51] Producer Steve: and even the suggestion of, you know, Palm Sunday, Easter, online only.
[01:59] Producer Steve: I thought, oh, my gosh, it's our biggest time of the year.
[02:03] Producer Steve: And just to be limited to doing it online only, it's, I don't know, I have a hard time getting my head around that.
[02:10] Producer Steve: I know.
[02:11] Kim Monson: There's so many things that we've taken for granted.
[02:13] Kim Monson: And this has been a big wake-up call.
[02:16] Kim Monson: You know, we've had Susan Harris on a number of times.
[02:19] Kim Monson: She's one of our valued partners, and she's always talked about being grateful.
[02:23] Kim Monson: And I think we step back and we see so many things that we should be grateful for.
[02:27] Kim Monson: And so I'm certainly remembering all of that.
[02:31] Kim Monson: But a great show planned for you today.
[02:33] Kim Monson: You know, something that we have started is Headlines for Hope.
[02:36] Kim Monson: These are three-minute snippets of just different stories of maybe people that I've interviewed, many of them World War II veterans.
[02:43] Kim Monson: yesterday's was with World War II Army nurse Layla Morrison.
[02:49] Kim Monson: But these are really special little stories, and I highly recommend that you go over to the website and check them out.
[02:56] Kim Monson: And, Steve, I think that you've really enjoyed these stories.
[02:59] Producer Steve: Oh, without doubt.
[03:00] Producer Steve: The testimonies coming back and or the unique approaches that people in, I guess most of them have been essentially a wartime veteran setting.
[03:13] Producer Steve: and their methodologies of handling their experiences.
[03:19] Producer Steve: I'm thinking of the guy who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam and when he was being pressured by the North Vietnamese to give names.
[03:27] Producer Steve: So he simply gives them the name of his high school football coach, assistant coach, other players on the team, and then to turn around five, six years later when he's back in the States telling people in his home crowd, hometown, who are seated in the audience, and says, hey, guys, you can't go back to Vietnam because they're looking for you.
[03:46] Kim Monson: So, yes, that was the story of Orson Swindle.
[03:49] Kim Monson: So go to my website, check those out.
[03:52] Kim Monson: Let me know what you think about them.
[03:54] Kim Monson: In the second segment, we'll be talking with two of my very valued partners, and that is Karen Levine, award-winning realtor with Remax Alliance, and Lorne Levy.
[04:02] Kim Monson: He's a mortgage financing specialist with Polygon Financial.
[04:07] Kim Monson: And during these times of unrest and just kind of not what's going on, disruption, there's always opportunity.
[04:13] Kim Monson: So I'm going to be excited to talk with them.
[04:16] Kim Monson: And then in the third and fourth segment, Tom Petrie, he's the chairman of Petrie Partners, which is a Denver, Houston-based energy investment banking firm.
[04:24] Kim Monson: And we'll be talking with him about oil.
[04:27] Kim Monson: Certainly the oil markets have been just very disrupted.
[04:34] Kim Monson: So I'm going to be excited to chat with him as well on that.
[04:37] Kim Monson: As we look at these issues, We look at them as freedom versus force, force versus freedom.
[04:43] Kim Monson: And as we walk back there, as we walk through this crisis, this COVID-19 Wuhan virus crisis, we will come out on the other side.
[04:52] Kim Monson: And as we look back, we will look back at politicians and bureaucrats that did they really work to do their job, which was to make sure that we have safe communities, certainly, or did they use their power to increase their power?
[05:13] Kim Monson: And we're going to, you know, the veil is going to be off.
[05:14] Kim Monson: As we go through and we look at this, we will need to hold these politicians and these bureaucrats and interested parties, these PBIs, accountable.
[05:25] Kim Monson: Because during times of crisis, PBIs like to increase their power.
[05:29] Kim Monson: and we will need as people to walk that back because ultimately the question is freedom versus force, force versus freedom.
[05:37] Kim Monson: Socialism ultimately comes down to force and if something is a good idea you should not have to force people to do it.
[05:44] Kim Monson: You should be able to engage in the battle of ideas and persuade people to see your point of view.
[05:50] Kim Monson: So we've got a lot of work that will be coming down the pike here as we walk through this disruption in our economy and in our lives.
[05:59] Kim Monson: I always like to say thank you to our producers, producer Steve and the team, Zach, Patty, Keith, and Charlie.
[06:07] Kim Monson: I'm very grateful to Crawford Broadcasting and to each of you, you listeners, you're treasured, you're valued.
[06:12] Kim Monson: Today, strive for excellence, take care of your heart, your soul, your mind, and your body.
[06:18] Kim Monson: And so our quote for today is from Teddy Roosevelt.
[06:24] Kim Monson: was an American statesman, politician, conservationist, naturalist, and writer who served as the 26th President of the United States from 1901 to 1909.
[06:33] Kim Monson: His face is depicted on Mount Rushmore alongside George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Abraham Lincoln, and he is generally ranked in polls of historians and political scientists as one of the five best presidents.
[06:46] Kim Monson: He said, nothing in this world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, and difficulty.
[06:54] Kim Monson: I think that's very timely for what we are walking through today, Steve.
[07:00] Producer Steve: And once again, we ring the bell for words spoken a long time ago that are incredibly significant to today.
[07:06] Producer Steve: So it's not that different.
[07:10] Kim Monson: You know, and as we are looking at these different quotes in the past, we've realized, as I have looked at much of modern education, that they have really kind of poo-pooed all of our founders and men and women that have gone through challenges before and have not taught our kids the history of our country.
[07:31] Kim Monson: And we need to take this time to kind of, you know, check out what's been going on in the education system.
[07:38] Kim Monson: Now, Steve, there are a lot of wonderful teachers out there, but there has also been an agenda that has been, I think, somewhat anti-American.
[07:52] Kim Monson: But the American idea of these individual rights of life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness is quite unique.
[07:59] Kim Monson: And we are seeing with this Wuhan virus thing that borders matter.
[08:03] Kim Monson: And so this is a big battle right now between nationalism and people that recognize that there's borders, that they have their country, and globalism.
[08:14] Kim Monson: And I think that as we see this whole globalism and the effects of that, we're realizing that that is not the greatest idea.
[08:22] Producer Steve: Well, you know, the big rallying cry on the other side is open borders.
[08:27] Producer Steve: We must have open borders from a health standard of all civilized countries that are trying to maintain some level of a health standard.
[08:37] Producer Steve: You say, how could this possibly be?
[08:40] Producer Steve: People are coming from other parts of the world where there are no health standards, and you say you want to turn them loose in this culture?
[08:47] Kim Monson: Yeah, it really doesn't make sense.
[08:49] Kim Monson: And yet we see, you know, who were some of the first politicians and bureaucrats to lock everything down?
[08:55] Kim Monson: They were people that were open borders.
[08:58] Kim Monson: But now we're realizing that they want us to have our borders of our own houses, our apartments, and our yards.
[09:04] Kim Monson: So I guess they really have gone the other way now on wanting to have borders, don't you think?
[09:11] Producer Steve: Well, a story caught my eye earlier this week.
[09:14] Producer Steve: Some town, smaller town on the U.S.-Mexican border, and the town itself was putting up some kind of a resistance to any people coming from the U.S.
[09:25] Producer Steve: into Mexico because of COVID-19, I thought, for crying out loud, for the last 30 years, you've been turning a blind eye to the people who were headed north or the northbound people.
[09:36] Producer Steve: But anybody on a southbound trajectory, all of a sudden you have an issue with?
[09:41] Kim Monson: But the point is, is borders do matter.
[09:45] Kim Monson: And Donald Trump was on this long before anybody else.
[09:48] Kim Monson: And again, just to make that correlation, these politicians and bureaucrats and interested parties that were saying that we need to have no borders, open borders.
[09:58] Kim Monson: All of a sudden, they're the first ones to put borders around us on where we can go and where we can't.
[10:04] Kim Monson: So I just find that a really interesting correlation.
[10:07] Producer Steve: Well, as you would expect, they're pointing the finger right now at the president saying he didn't react quick enough, he didn't do X, Y, Z.
[10:16] Producer Steve: It seems to me the very first thing he did was ban travel from China.
[10:21] Producer Steve: And what label did they hang on him right away?
[10:23] Producer Steve: I mean, he can't win.
[10:28] Kim Monson: Let's do a quick, I like this little funnies.
[10:31] Kim Monson: Did you happen to look at it yet, Steve?
[10:32] Producer Steve: I did.
[10:34] Producer Steve: Okay.
[10:36] Kim Monson: Cash, check, or charge, I asked after folding items the woman wished to purchase.
[10:41] Kim Monson: As she fumbled for her wallet, I noticed a remote control for a television set in her purse.
[10:46] Kim Monson: So do you always carry your TV remote, I asked.
[10:49] Kim Monson: No, she replied, but my husband refused to come shopping with me, and I figured that this would get his attention.
[10:56] Producer Steve: You know, I got a comment because my cousin's wife back in the East Coast commented the other day how she misses shopping.
[11:06] Producer Steve: She can't wait to get out and go shopping.
[11:08] Producer Steve: I said, you've got to be kidding me.
[11:14] Kim Monson: Actually, I'm not really a shopper, but I know that a lot of women do.
[11:17] Kim Monson: It's just something that they enjoy doing.
[11:21] Kim Monson: I just, first of all, wanted to make a point.
[11:23] Kim Monson: You know, we've seen Andrew Cuomo all over, you know, the television, and he's whining.
[11:33] Kim Monson: Instead of doing his job and taking care of New Yorkers, he's whining about the president.
[11:37] Kim Monson: You know, you're seeing him continue to politicize this whole thing instead of pulling together.
[11:43] Kim Monson: You know, we have this coronavirus possible treatment.
[11:50] Kim Monson: and apparently Andrew Cuomo has issued an executive order prohibiting doctors to prescribe two anti-malarial drugs that look like they're a great treatment.
[12:08] Kim Monson: This was in, let's see, I don't see exactly where it was.
[12:11] Kim Monson: Oz has called on Cuomo to reverse that executive order.
[12:16] Kim Monson: And don't you find it interesting that there is a possible treatment and with coma all over the television, all over the Internet, whining about all the difficulties of New Yorkers, but yet he puts in an executive order that would prohibit doctors to prescribe this.
[12:35] Producer Steve: Well, obstructionism is a favorite trick of that side of the fence.
[12:41] Producer Steve: But, and if it happens, you heard it here first, I'm not saying it's going to, But why all of a sudden is he getting so much screen time?
[12:50] Producer Steve: And the theory is, is that old Joe is not going to make it.
[12:53] Producer Steve: Old Joe Biden is not going to make it.
[12:55] Producer Steve: And they're going to try to slip Cuomo in for Biden.
[12:58] Producer Steve: But again, that's just a theory at this point.
[13:01] Kim Monson: Well, and the other thing was a headline yesterday that Patty had is it looks like the Democrat Party is going to postpone their convention by at least a few weeks.
[13:12] Kim Monson: And I thought that was kind of interesting as well.
[13:17] Producer Steve: Anything that buys them some time.
[13:21] Kim Monson: So before we go to break, though, we need to really buckle down and help all of our restaurants, bars, and taverns.
[13:27] Kim Monson: With Governor Polis and Mayor Hancock's edicts to close dine-in options for individuals, restaurant workers are on lean times right now.
[13:34] Kim Monson: And so restaurants are getting creative, and Hooters Restaurants is a valued partner of mine and really support my shows.
[13:40] Kim Monson: So let them know how much you appreciate their sponsorship by stopping by and picking up dinner to take home, or you can have Hooters Wings delivered to your front door.
[13:48] Kim Monson: So go to itsorder.hooters.com, and you can put your order there, and then you can drop by and pick it up curbside, and we'd greatly appreciate that.
[13:56] Kim Monson: We need to help each other as we're working through this.
[14:00] Kim Monson: When we come back, a couple others of my very valued partners, Karen Levine with Remax Alliance and Lord Levy with Polygon Financial, which he's a mortgage specialist, will be here to update us on what's happening there.
[14:15] Producer Steve: Water's Edge Winery and Bistro is celebrating five years in business and is now open Tuesday through Sunday, 3 p.m.
[14:21] Producer Steve: to 8 p.m.
[14:23] Producer Steve: Located near the northwest corner of Arapahoe and University, they are offering to-go food and wine to keep you fed and happy.
[14:31] Producer Steve: Call 720-381-6663 to place our curbside to-go order or stop in and grab your bottles and lunch or dinner.
[14:42] Producer Steve: That's 720-381-6663 or follow Water's Edge Winery and Bistro Centennial on Facebook or Instagram for updates and specials.
[14:54] Lee Greenwood Recording: From the lakes of Minnesota to the hills of Tennessee.
[15:01] Kim Monson: Welcome back to the Kim Monson Show.
[15:04] Kim Monson: I am Kim Monson and every day at noon, Aaron Will came up with this idea to wherever you are.
[15:11] Kim Monson: get your phone out or on your computer and play God Bless the USA loudly.
[15:18] Kim Monson: I got a text from Jason McBride, Presidential Wealth Management, yesterday, and he said that he had blurted in his neighborhood, so good for him.
[15:27] Kim Monson: I had mentioned yesterday that I was going to be on Fox News on a panel last night on the Martha McCallum Show, and actually Susan Kochabar as well and Dede Chisholm.
[15:39] Kim Monson: Well, Susan and I were standing by and ended up we were not on there.
[15:47] Kim Monson: It was going to be a great claim to fame.
[15:50] Kim Monson: But Dee Dee was, which was really cool.
[15:51] Kim Monson: As you know, she's with Bella Healthcare and Wellness.
[15:55] Kim Monson: But what had happened apparently is Martha McCallum had a number of experts on, and they ended up talking longer than anticipated, so 11 of us got bumped.
[16:05] Kim Monson: So I tell you what, Steve, it was my claim to fame, but it didn't happen.
[16:11] Producer Steve: We were all, we had things we wanted to autograph.
[16:18] Kim Monson: So, hey, on the line with me is two of my valued partners, Karen Levine with Remax Alliance and Lorne Levy with Polygon Financial.
[16:27] Kim Monson: So, Karen Levine, welcome to the show.
[16:31] Kim Monson: And Lorne, how are you doing today?
[16:41] Kim Monson: I have not really been paying attention this week just because there's so much going on.
[16:45] Kim Monson: What has happened with the interest rates in the mortgage market?
[16:50] Lorne Levy: You know, we're kind of in a leveling off period right now.
[16:53] Lorne Levy: There hasn't been much going on with interest rates at all.
[16:56] Lorne Levy: They've kind of just been hanging out for a little while.
[17:00] Lorne Levy: With that said, as Karen can probably tell you, there's been plenty of transactions going on, lots of buys and sells in the real estate market.
[17:13] Lorne Levy: The refinances have cooled off a little bit until some of this market volatility settles down.
[17:17] Lorne Levy: It's a pretty long explanation as to why loans have kind of frozen temporarily, but we're in that situation here now.
[17:26] Lorne Levy: People think it might be for maybe another couple of weeks.
[17:28] Lorne Levy: That doesn't mean loans aren't getting done.
[17:30] Lorne Levy: It just means that rates aren't down where they were.
[17:33] Kim Monson: So Karen, we are coming into springtime, which is a big time for the real estate market.
[17:40] Kim Monson: And Lauren just said that there's been some activity.
[17:45] Karen Levine: Well, you know, in the midst of what we refer to as unprecedented waters, In the last seven days, along the Front Range, our 11-county metro area, 1,651 new homes came on the market.
[18:03] Karen Levine: And we absorbed or put under contract, we have pending, 1,169 homes.
[18:12] Karen Levine: So we are seeing, as Lauren said, the same very similar activity that we were seeing earlier in the year, which is as new listings come on, they are getting absorbed by the buyer marketplace, which is exciting to see.
[18:28] Karen Levine: We've had to engage some new protocols with regards to showing homes and how we get homes closed, to keep everybody safe.
[18:37] Karen Levine: But I think the realtor community has really stepped up and is doing a great job, making sure that the consumer is protected and that when people are showing homes they are doing it safely.
[18:52] Kim Monson: Well, and, you know, we've had Randall O'Toole on talking about housing as well, and there's been such a push by PBIs to try to get people into apartments and, you know, I guess a lesser land footprint, if you will.
[19:08] Kim Monson: But what we're really seeing is the safest place that you can be is in your home, with your own backyard and also your own personal vehicle.
[19:16] Kim Monson: And so I think as we get through this disruption, we're going to see people say, you know, kind of pump the brakes on all these apartments and let's move us more towards homeownership again.
[19:28] Karen Levine: Well, I definitely think people who own homes in this current environment definitely have a sense of safety and a sense that their shelter is protected despite everything else.
[19:46] Karen Levine: And so the value of homeownership, I definitely think, is going to come back to the center of our economy, as it always has been, even though they've tried to allude to that it's not an important piece of our society.
[20:03] Karen Levine: I think we're going to see it become a more important piece, because as the financial markets are jumping all over the place, our housing market is staying very strong, very stable, and we're still experiencing appreciation.
[20:17] Karen Levine: So a good place, one, to have a roof over your head, and two, a good place for you to have some of your investment dollars or your wealth building.
[20:29] Kim Monson: So as we're moving into this, there may be, it seems, was that a greater number of houses coming on the market than we've seen, or has that been right in line with kind of what's been happening?
[20:42] Karen Levine: It might be slightly higher, and I'll be totally honest.
[20:46] Karen Levine: I didn't start looking at things at an hourly, daily, weekly basis until two weeks ago.
[20:52] Karen Levine: So I'm trying to get a handle on how do things actually look day to day.
[20:57] Karen Levine: But based on the fact that we're still seeing strong under contract activity tells me, you know, the spring selling season isn't coming to a halt.
[21:08] Karen Levine: I think we may see that the selling season extends through the summer, depending on how long we're in a shelter-in-place situation.
[21:21] Kim Monson: So now, Lauren, you mentioned that interest rates, it kind of sounds like it's trying to figure out what's going on.
[21:30] Kim Monson: But if people are thinking that they might want to get into a house, you could pre-qualify them and then lock in a rate a little bit later, right?
[21:39] Lorne Levy: And that's kind of what we're doing, Kim.
[21:42] Lorne Levy: We're just talking to people, getting all the pertinent information, making sure we have it so that if they want to go looking or if the rates dip back down again, we don't have to have the whole conversation.
[21:52] Lorne Levy: At that time, we would have already had it.
[21:55] Lorne Levy: The biggest thing that's causing disruption in my world is on the grand national level, not just Colorado.
[22:03] Lorne Levy: This is the whole country, is with the job loss situation that has happened.
[22:05] Lorne Levy: And lenders are nervous that people may not have a job, the same job they did when they applied for the loan, may not be there when the loan is ready to fund.
[22:15] Lorne Levy: And so that's causing some of the disruption and it's causing some of the extra protocols that Karen mentioned.
[22:22] Lorne Levy: She has protocols for showing houses.
[22:24] Lorne Levy: We have protocols for getting loans closed.
[22:26] Lorne Levy: We have to re-verify at the very last minute that people's job situation hasn't changed.
[22:32] Lorne Levy: And so there's just a lot of disruption and people are unsure.
[22:36] Lorne Levy: And when you have uncertainty, things get a little haywire sometimes.
[22:42] Kim Monson: And well, it is such an unprecedented time.
[22:46] Kim Monson: How are you talking with people, Lorne, about this as we're working through this?
[22:53] Kim Monson: Because it is such a weird time in America right now.
[22:57] Lorne Levy: And it really depends, Kim, it depends on who we're talking to.
[23:00] Lorne Levy: So the majority of this country, I would say, is unaffected by their jobs.
[23:08] Lorne Levy: Most people aren't going to the office, but their jobs afford them the ability to work at home.
[23:12] Lorne Levy: But if we've got a potential homebuyer that maybe will be prequalified- that was a restaurant worker or something like that- where, through no fault of their own, their business has been forced to shut down, someone like that is going to have to wait and go through some different protocols to maintain their qualifications to get a loan.
[23:30] Lorne Levy: And so it's just a different conversation with whoever you're talking to.
[23:36] Kim Monson: But you should still have that conversation, right?
[23:39] Kim Monson: Even though there is that disruption, you'd highly recommend at least to have that conversation.
[23:44] Lorne Levy: I think everyone's in agreement that whatever the situation is, it's going to pass, whether it's a month, which not many people think it might be, or maybe two, three months.
[23:53] Lorne Levy: This will pass, and the people that have been affected will rebound.
[23:56] Lorne Levy: You know, there's different ideas of how long the rebound will take.
[24:00] Lorne Levy: But even the people that are in trouble now will eventually come back to the market.
[24:03] Lorne Levy: Their jobs will hopefully come back.
[24:05] Lorne Levy: And they'll be right there in the market to buy a home.
[24:08] Lorne Levy: And so it's worthwhile to get everything in line so that when it does bounce back, that part of the job is done already.
[24:16] Kim Monson: And, Karen, if people are interested in looking at a home, how does this work right now?
[24:21] Karen Levine: Um, depending on the desires of the seller.
[24:25] Karen Levine: Um, we are offering virtual tours so that you know they can go online and they can do a virtual walk through the property.
[24:34] Karen Levine: Um, there have been and and definitely are getting more.
[24:40] Karen Levine: Uh, business are our professional photographers and videographers, but you, I personally.
[24:47] Karen Levine: If I'm allowed to go into the property, I can FaceTime the consumer or I can meet the consumer at the property.
[24:53] Karen Levine: And if I do meet the consumer at the property, the buyer.
[24:57] Karen Levine: We're going to do things like remove our shoes before we go into the home.
[25:01] Karen Levine: We're going to ask the buyer not to touch doorknobs and light switches and allow me to do that, me wearing gloves, utilizing hand sanitizer, et cetera.
[25:14] Karen Levine: And we're going to be very timely and appropriate as we walk through the home, but get a good sense.
[25:26] Karen Levine: We are doing as we've asked and keeping our distance and allowing them to see the property.
[25:34] Karen Levine: and homeowners have been very gracious as far as, especially with vacant homes, it's not as much of a concern.
[25:42] Karen Levine: But if it's a home that's occupied, we may be limiting showings and we're also asking that you wait until if there's a party in the home, wait for them to leave before you enter the home.
[25:56] Karen Levine: Whereas, you know, we were having last spring multiple parties in a house at once, coming and going.
[26:02] Karen Levine: So we're just having to take our time or having to be more, I would say, mindful and more intentional.
[26:13] Karen Levine: But that's not keeping people from wanting to sell their homes and or needing to buy a home.
[26:21] Kim Monson: And how can people reach you, Karen Levine, with REMAX Alliance?
[26:36] Kim Monson: Uh, I will do another weekly update next week and I really appreciate it.
[26:41] Kim Monson: And Lorne Levy with polygon financial, how can people reach you?
[26:45] Lorne Levy: Uh, they can reach me at 303-880-8881.
[26:49] Kim Monson: Okay, 303-880-8881, we will talk to you guys next week.
[27:01] Kim Monson: So before we go to break, we're going to be talking with Jason McBride, Presidential Wealth Management.
[27:07] Kim Monson: As you all know, the financial markets have just been all over the place, and there's a lot of emotion in the financial markets right now.
[27:15] Kim Monson: And you can see that as that works through all this volatility.
[27:19] Kim Monson: But there's always great opportunity as well.
[27:22] Kim Monson: And certainly there's great American companies that are a lot cheaper than they were three or four weeks ago.
[27:27] Kim Monson: Jason McBride, Presidential Wealth Management.
[27:34] Jason McBride: Well, I thought I was going to be on the Kim Monson show and Steve hung up on me.
[27:50] Jason McBride: A couple of things is, of course, We got a giant quotation mark shocking number of jobless claims yesterday, over 6 million.
[28:01] Jason McBride: And, Kim, I honestly fail to see why that is so shocking.
[28:09] Jason McBride: They've made people go home, not in every business.
[28:12] Jason McBride: So I would have been shocked if we wouldn't have seen that many, you know, claims for unemployment.
[28:20] Jason McBride: But, you know, there's a lot of folks that are saying the entire economy has ground to a halt.
[28:29] Jason McBride: You, me, Lauren, Karen, Steve, you've got five people on this show right now that are still working and employed.
[28:43] Jason McBride: But that is a misnomer to say that the entire economy has ground to a halt.
[28:52] Kim Monson: Yeah, you know, and I was looking at headlines before we got on the air this morning, and my gosh, there's different words that people can use that either may imply something that's not true or scare people.
[29:05] Kim Monson: And to your point, there's still a lot going on in the economy.
[29:09] Kim Monson: But, man, over in the restaurant side, I was on a call last night.
[29:13] Kim Monson: with some people that own some restaurants, and it's pretty scary there.
[29:17] Kim Monson: You know, they've put their capital up, and, you know, employees, I mean, it's not easy to let employees go.
[29:24] Kim Monson: It's rough over there on the restaurant side.
[29:27] Jason McBride: Now, some of them are still doing takeout, and as you know, Kim, my son Preston works at Maggiano's, and they're still doing a pretty good takeout business.
[29:37] Jason McBride: He's picking up shifts of, you know, running food out people's cars for him and he says people are being pretty generous with the tip.
[29:47] Jason McBride: So there's another, uh, you know, kind of a bit of evidence that you know americans are pulling together and then we're trying to do good to help with the economy.
[29:59] Jason McBride: And he said that, you know people have been very generous, uh, with their tips, with him bringing the stuff out to the cars.
[30:13] Jason McBride: I mean, part of it is very shut down right now.
[30:16] Jason McBride: I heard somebody yesterday, some gal that was just screeching that we were going to get 10 times the amount of unemployment we had back in 2008.
[30:37] Kim Monson: We are Americans and we have a great American spirit.
[30:44] Kim Monson: And if people are, you know, taking a look at things, they should probably give you and your colleagues, all the guys and gals over presidential, a call for help because now's a good time to maybe take their temperature on where they are on their investment portfolio.
[30:56] Jason McBride: I mean, it's a little bit tough to do a meeting right now.
[30:59] Jason McBride: I mean, we could still do them, Kim, discovery sessions, some of the more technologically advanced advisors, you know, have Zoom video going and they're doing the video meetings.
[31:11] Jason McBride: My Internet's too slow at home, so I'm still stuck old school just over the phone.
[31:17] Jason McBride: But, you know, there's nothing wrong with a good old phone call just to give us a call and talk to one of our fine advisors.
[31:25] Jason McBride: If you have questions about your portfolio or a particular investment, or you're just worried and want someone to speak with to kind of be a steady hand, I think this is a great time to get to know one of the fine men and women that work at Presidential Wealth Management.
[31:47] Kim Monson: And that number is 303- 694- 1600,303-694- 1600.
[31:52] Kim Monson: AndNatalie will be at the virtual switchboard at 7: 30.
[31:57] Kim Monson: So that's a great way to reach you.
[32:01] Producer Steve: For the record, I did not hang up on him.
[32:06] Jason McBride: He's trying to get rid of me, been trying since I started with him.
[32:12] Kim Monson: So, Jason McBride, I highly recommend people reach out to you.
[32:16] Kim Monson: All the guys and gals over at Presidential Wealth Management can help.
[32:19] Kim Monson: And again, that phone number is 303- 694- 1600,303-694- 1600.
[32:30] Kim Monson: When we come back, Tom Petrie, who is really an expert on the oil industry, had a real disruption.
[32:38] Kim Monson: And it's been about three weeks since we talked with him.
[32:41] Kim Monson: This is a show that's brought to you by Liberty Oilfield Services because hydrocarbons, reliable, efficient, and affordable energy really helps us live prosperous lives.
[32:51] Kim Monson: And while we are in this kind of quote- unquote shelterat home, it is really nice to have reliable and efficient and affordable energy.
[33:00] Kim Monson: So let's talk to Tom Petrie when we come back about that.
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[34:38] Lee Greenwood Recording: And I'm proud to be an American.
[34:42] Kim Monson: And welcome back to The Kim Monson Show.
[34:51] Kim Monson: Podcasts of the show can be found there.
[34:53] Kim Monson: And go over to Facebook and like us as well.
[34:56] Kim Monson: There is so much going on in our world right now, and I'm really excited to talk with Tom Petrie.
[35:02] Kim Monson: He is the chairman of Petrie Partners, which is a Denver-Houston-based energy investment banking firm.
[35:08] Kim Monson: Tom graduated from West Point and earned his MSBA in finance from Boston University.
[35:12] Kim Monson: and the Colorado School of Mines bestowed on him an honorary doctorate of engineering.
[35:18] Kim Monson: So he is just the guy to talk to about what's going on in our energy markets.
[35:26] Kim Monson: Our world has changed significantly since about three weeks ago when we last talked.
[35:35] Kim Monson: And energy, I think let's start with COVID-19, though, first.
[35:41] Kim Monson: It certainly has disrupted our markets.
[35:43] Kim Monson: What's your thoughts about that, Tom Petrie?
[35:46] Tom Petrie: Well, you know, it's of a magnitude that's really unprecedented.
[35:51] Tom Petrie: The closest analog to this particular pandemic, I think, is the 1918 Spanish flu.
[36:00] Tom Petrie: That one was even more deadly in percentage terms.
[36:08] Tom Petrie: Millions and millions of people died.
[36:10] Tom Petrie: I've seen a wide range of estimates, but it was also very, very disruptive at that time, and it did circle the globe in a remarkably short order right in the aftermath of the end of World War I.
[36:25] Tom Petrie: This one has been powerfully disruptive because the lessons learned from the Spanish flu of 1918 have caused the experts that we've heard from, and they know what they're talking about, I think, to develop the kind of guidelines that have now shut down a meaningful part of the global economy.
[36:47] Tom Petrie: It's important, as they've said, to suppress the contagion as much as possible, flatten the curve as they speak of it, so as not to overload the hospital systems.
[37:00] Tom Petrie: And that does require altered states for many of us, the social distancing and much curtailed gathering activities of people have implications.
[37:15] Tom Petrie: The world last year was producing and consuming 100 million barrels of oil per day.
[37:22] Tom Petrie: Today, there are varying estimates about how much of an impact this social distancing has had.
[37:29] Tom Petrie: But when we talked three weeks ago, it looked like an 8 to 10 million barrel a day problem of oversupply.
[37:38] Tom Petrie: Today, the estimates vary from anywhere from 20 million barrels a day, twice that, to possibly almost three times that, 30 million barrels a day.
[37:49] Tom Petrie: That's not a permanent altering in all likelihood if they're successful in containing the spread of the virus.
[37:56] Tom Petrie: and there is evidence to suggest that the distancing protocols will do that.
[38:04] Tom Petrie: But there's no question but what it's a big challenge right now for OPEC, for the U.
[38:11] Tom Petrie: And when we come out the other side, I don't think there's any question but what some altering in our economic activity and behavior will continue to affect the oil and gas industry.
[38:23] Tom Petrie: in the near term, there's not an easy answer as to how to deal with that much oversupply.
[38:30] Kim Monson: So, Tom Petrie, we've seen, you know, people that are talking about climate change, they've kind of tried to shut down the energy business through policy.
[38:42] Kim Monson: But as we are sheltering in our homes or sequestered in our homes, I realize, you know, the fact that we have reliable and efficient and affordable energy is really important.
[38:53] Kim Monson: And so I think the conversation may change a bit as we move into the future.
[38:57] Kim Monson: What's your thoughts on that, Tom Petrie?
[38:59] Tom Petrie: I agree with you very much on that.
[39:02] Tom Petrie: First of all, the role of hydrocarbons in fostering healthier lives and better prosperity, not just in the United States but in many other countries around the world, is critical.
[39:18] Tom Petrie: And it's a way oversimplified solution to think if we just don't consume fossil fuels, we'll solve the climate issues as represented today and that the problems will go away.
[39:37] Tom Petrie: In fact, the side effects of the disruption of the fossil fuel industry, there are a number of them that really need to be thought through much more thoroughly than has happened so far in the public dialogue.
[39:52] Kim Monson: And, you know, Tom, I think people may not have been paying attention to what has been happening from a policy standpoint.
[40:01] Kim Monson: Before this whole thing, I think we took a lot for granted.
[40:07] Kim Monson: We didn't realize that our lives could be disrupted just like they have within just three, four short weeks.
[40:13] Kim Monson: And so I think people will be paying more attention to what is happening in the policy standpoint on these things.
[40:23] Kim Monson: Do you think there's awakening on that?
[40:26] Tom Petrie: I do think that complacency, that taking things for granted, are changing in many ways.
[40:32] Tom Petrie: there's a remarkable process going on as we have this social distancing.
[40:42] Tom Petrie: I think we come to appreciate better what the interaction, what human interaction is all about.
[40:49] Tom Petrie: I had a discussion on this with my son last night, and it's remarkable to see there's a certain degree, as we've had to dial back our direct interaction, there's an extra degree of, I think, consideration and politeness developing in the society, which has tended to overcome some of that polarization issue that we were noting in recent years leading up to this.
[41:22] Kim Monson: You know, that reminds me, years and years ago, back Wilbur Wilberforce, as he was in England regarding the British slave trade.
[41:33] Kim Monson: He wanted to get rid of the British slave trade, which he did, which was before the Americans actually, America was founded.
[41:42] Kim Monson: But the other thing is he was concerned about bringing back good manners to British society.
[41:49] Kim Monson: And it's interesting that you would say that.
[41:51] Kim Monson: I'm hearing a lot of people say people have gotten a little nicer during this time.
[41:57] Kim Monson: And I think that's really positive, Tom.
[42:01] Tom Petrie: And I think it has broader implications about deeper, more thoughtful consideration of what we're dealing with on the climate change issues and on the values that we hold as a society.
[42:16] Tom Petrie: there is a sense of more shared sharing of the pain, more caring about pain for various individuals dealing with the challenges that we have today.
[42:31] Kim Monson: Well, I think that that's good news.
[42:36] Kim Monson: We wanted to talk a bit about the Saudis and the Russians, and then we had a caller, Steve, just text me and asking why big oil won't increase refining capacity or capability.
[42:48] Kim Monson: When we come back, let's put that question on the table and then talk about Russia and Saudi Arabia.
[42:52] Kim Monson: So we'll be right back with Tom Petrie with Petrie Partners.
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[44:10] Lee Greenwood Recording: Welcome back to the Kim Monson Show.
[44:20] Kim Monson: And we've been playing Lee Greenwood, God Bless the USA, because we had Erin Will on the other day.
[44:26] Kim Monson: and she came up with this idea that at noon throughout the country, on whatever device, your computer or your phone, play God Bless the USA.
[44:36] Kim Monson: And so that's why we are doing that.
[44:39] Kim Monson: We have Tom Petrie on the line with us.
[44:41] Kim Monson: This is our Health and Hydrocarbons show.
[44:43] Kim Monson: And we are realizing as we are sequestered in our homes that reliable, efficient, and affordable energy is really a good thing.
[44:52] Kim Monson: Could you imagine if our electricity was intermittent and we didn't have heat, it would be just not very much.
[45:00] Kim Monson: It's not really that much fun right now, Tom, to not have the freedom of movement.
[45:04] Kim Monson: But, man, if we didn't have reliable energy, it would really not be fun.
[45:15] Kim Monson: We had a caller that called in and asked why big oil won't increase refining capacity or capability.
[45:22] Kim Monson: How would you respond to that, Tom Petrie?
[45:26] Tom Petrie: Well, I'd say the challenge right now is not deficient capacity.
[45:32] Tom Petrie: We have enough capacity to meet the needs.
[45:34] Tom Petrie: The challenge that's going on right now in the refining sector is to make sure that the kind of refining we have is suited to the characteristics of the oil that's being turned into fossil fuel products.
[45:49] Tom Petrie: The industry has actually been quite responsive, and there are challenges that they face that are coming from the regulatory side.
[46:01] Tom Petrie: And frankly, there's an issue of just what one can do in the lead times involved to get properly approved refinery expansions.
[46:15] Tom Petrie: So I think right now we've got gasoline prices declining, partly because of the cost of crude input, but also because it's a very competitive business, and the availability of clean fuels is out there.
[46:34] Tom Petrie: There's ample availability at a very reasonable price.
[46:39] Tom Petrie: So I don't think it's necessarily a problem.
[46:42] Tom Petrie: It could be a problem somewhere down the road, depending on just how the regulatory policies unfold from here.
[46:50] Tom Petrie: But the industry wants to supply the fuel to people, and there really have not been.
[46:58] Tom Petrie: This time around, in the last decade, we've not had shortages at all like what we saw in the 70s, parts of the 80s and even in the 90s during interruptions of fuel typically involving actions in the Middle East.
[47:17] Tom Petrie: As we're now set up with the shale revolution that's occurred, more of our supply is domestic, and there is an adaptation of the refining system to run that kind of fuel more, that kind of crude oil input, more than heavier oils in the Middle East and things like that.
[47:40] Kim Monson: Okay, so Tom Petrie, that's actually a couple of questions.
[47:44] Kim Monson: You mentioned that we have not had the shortages like we did in the 70s and 80s because we have actually been able to become an exporter even on energy, where back in the 70s, 80s, we were so dependent on the Middle East.
[48:00] Kim Monson: I'm concerned, though, with prices coming down so low that it may put some of our independent energy producers out of business.
[48:13] Tom Petrie: Sadly, you're right on the money on that judgment.
[48:15] Tom Petrie: We do have a situation where there are more independent producers than we've had in any of the prior three or four decades.
[48:30] Tom Petrie: There was quite a, one, a land rush for the shale development opportunities, and two, the capital markets were quite accommodating for new equity issuance and new bond issuance.
[48:45] Tom Petrie: And so, with the changed conditions that have come from the global oversupply and the disruption that is associated with the coronavirus, We're in a situation where a restructuring of some of the enterprises that are over-levered is in the offing.
[49:06] Tom Petrie: Earlier this week, we saw the prepackaged bankruptcy.
[49:10] Tom Petrie: That's an anticipatory bankruptcy of Whiting Petroleum.
[49:15] Tom Petrie: And that's viewed by many, and I think correctly, that there'll be others that follow because of that.
[49:25] Tom Petrie: That doesn't mean that they'll totally go out of business.
[49:27] Tom Petrie: The one thing about our bankruptcy law in this country is that it does provide for ways in which the lenders can restructure.
[49:40] Tom Petrie: Sometimes their loans are turned into equity, and there's a recapitalization.
[49:44] Tom Petrie: Usually that's at a penalty to the earlier equity owners.
[49:48] Tom Petrie: So there is pain involved, and I don't mean to belittle that at all.
[49:53] Tom Petrie: And there definitely will be forced restructurings.
[50:04] Tom Petrie: Often the enterprises run out of flexibility.
[50:07] Tom Petrie: So we're going to see consolidation.
[50:10] Tom Petrie: I think there will be a healthy aspect to it, because some of the combinations will result in enterprises that have more scale and a sounder long-term capitalization.
[50:23] Tom Petrie: But there's no question, Boyd, that's going to be one of the hallmarks of probably the next several years while that consolidation occurs.
[50:32] Kim Monson: Okay, Tom, so we're getting close to the end of the show, and I have big questions still, and that is with what's going on with the Saudis and Russia.
[50:43] Tom Petrie: Well, that's on center stage, you're right.
[50:47] Tom Petrie: Oil company parties who are going to be also doing various things, things that involve advising the president on the Russian and Saudi move for market share.
[51:11] Tom Petrie: And that move for market share has been a really disrupting force.
[51:18] Tom Petrie: The president has made some remarks the last couple of days that he has now had conversations with both the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin and with the MBS, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, and he thinks that they're going to be moving toward some kind of an accommodation or change of strategy.
[51:38] Tom Petrie: I do believe that when the accord between Russia and Saudi blew up since our last call, when that happened, it resulted in an overreaction in the markets, that neither Russia nor Saudi anticipated, much deeper decline in the price of oil and a lot of disruption.
[52:04] Tom Petrie: And so I think there's now a greater sharing of objective, that the degree of disruption that was introduced wants to be mitigated by all parties.
[52:16] Tom Petrie: I think it's going to be a challenge because the oversupply, as I mentioned at the beginning of our discussion, is north of 20 million barrels a day.
[52:24] Tom Petrie: There's no single player who can contribute meaningfully to rebalancing that overnight or even in the next month or two.
[52:39] Tom Petrie: So I think for the next several quarters, the rebalancing is going to be a huge focus of attention.
[52:44] Tom Petrie: I think in the longer run, it'll be better.
[52:47] Tom Petrie: But first of all, we have to contain the spread of the virus.
[52:50] Tom Petrie: Once that happens and people can get back to something closer to normal, but it will be a new normal.
[52:57] Tom Petrie: It won't be just a return to the old normal.
[53:00] Tom Petrie: But once that happens, the ability to manage the oversupply will be better.
[53:05] Tom Petrie: I anticipate that to be in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
[53:10] Tom Petrie: The challenge in the coming weeks and the next couple of months is going to be formidable, and I think we'll probably want to be talking about that on more than one occasion.
[53:24] Tom Petrie: The most encouraging thing I've heard, though, is that both Russia and Saudi understand that they're losers in that move from market share that was made in recent weeks, and I think they're going to look to work cooperatively.
[53:44] Tom Petrie: also to work with them, And we have some real structural and cultural differences about accommodating, about trying to manipulate the market, if you will, by cutting back artificially on supply.
[53:58] Tom Petrie: So how that gets managed from here, nobody has the exact answer yet.
[54:06] Tom Petrie: There are some self-correcting forces that will be triggered.
[54:10] Tom Petrie: The low prices are unsustainable in terms of developing new supply.
[54:18] Tom Petrie: So over time, that self-correcting force will kick in.
[54:22] Tom Petrie: The low prices are stimulative to demand, but not when we're exercising social distancing as we are today.
[54:32] Tom Petrie: So hopefully in the next two or three months, we'll have a better answer on how we're working on containing the virus, and then we can address more correctly and more effectively the rebalancing of the oversupply.
[54:45] Kim Monson: Well, Tom Petrie with Petrie Partners, great information, greatly appreciate it.
[54:51] Kim Monson: And yes, let's talk very soon again because affordable, reliable, and efficient energy makes our lives better.
[54:56] Kim Monson: This show is brought to you by Liberty Oilfield Services.
[55:04] Kim Monson: And so today, be grateful for what we do.
[55:07] Kim Monson: Read great books, think good thoughts, listen to beautiful music, communicate and listen well, live honestly and authentically, strive for high ideals, and like Superman, stand for truth, justice, and the American way.
[55:19] Kim Monson: And our quote for today is from Teddy Roosevelt.
[55:22] Kim Monson: He said, we must show, not merely in times of great crisis, but in the everyday affairs of life, the qualities of practical intelligence, of courage, of hardyhood, and endurance, and above all, the power of devotion, the lofty ideal, which made the great men who founded this republic in the days of Washington, which made great the men who preserved this republic in the days of Abraham Lincoln.
[56:09] Unknown: And now it's our turn.
[56:12] Unknown: So God bless you and God bless America.
[56:16] Unknown: cry but tell them if i don't survive
